As we wrap up another year and look toward 2026, the real estate holiday forecast for Vancouver Island stands at a delicate balance. Influenced by shifting supply and demand, evolving buyer priorities, and broader economic factors. Here’s how things might unfold in the months to come.
Balanced But Buoyant: What Recent Data Tells Us
Recent reports from Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB) show the 2025 market trending toward a “balanced” territory. In March, for example, total unit sales were down just 1% year-over-year, while active listings increased about 6%. Meanwhile, single-family home and condominium sales rose vs. one year earlier, with more inventory hitting the market in both categories.
Broader forecasts from across British Columbia support this cautious optimism. The BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) projects that while 2025 sales may dip modestly, overall prices on Vancouver Island are likely to remain stable or even increase slightly.
At the same time, listings appear to be rising, a signal that supply is loosening just enough to give both buyers and sellers room to breathe without triggering a full-on slowdown.
What’s Driving Demand — and Where It’s Shifting
Affordability-conscious buyers expand their focus
With prices and interest rates still a concern, many buyers, especially first-timers or those seeking lifestyle changes, are gravitating toward more affordable parts of the Island. Communities like Campbell River, Parksville, and smaller rural centres are increasingly attractive.
At the same time, the premium or luxury market remains alive and well, especially in amenity-rich or highly desirable areas.
Lifestyle, sustainability, and remote work matter more than ever
Vancouver Island’s allure: natural beauty, slower pace, and community feel, continues to attract remote workers, retirees, and families. At the same time, a growing number of buyers are prioritizing eco-friendly homes, energy efficiency, and sustainable building practices. Developers seem to be taking notice.
These lifestyle factors may help keep demand stable even if broader economic headwinds remain.
Potential Market Scenarios for 2026
Here are a few plausible “what-ifs” for the coming year:
- Steady but modest price growth. If demand stays consistent, fueled by lifestyle-motivated buyers, retirees, and remote-workers, and supply grows slowly, we could see average prices inch upward, perhaps 2–5% above today’s levels.
- More movement in suburban and rural markets. As affordability stays in focus, areas outside major urban hubs may see more competitive activity: condos, townhomes, and moderately priced single-family homes may become especially desirable.
- Balanced negotiation power for buyers and sellers. With more listings and slightly longer market times, buyers might gain more flexibility. Sellers, meanwhile, may need to price carefully and focus on presentation and value.
- Sustained interest in sustainability and lifestyle quality. Homes with energy-efficient features, easy commutes (or access to remote work), and proximity to nature could increasingly stand out as “future-proof” investments.
What This Means for You — As a Buyer or Seller on the Island
- For buyers: This could be a good time to re-enter the market especially if you’re open to condos, townhomes, or properties in suburban/rural communities. Lower competition than the 2021–22 peak years might mean less bidding-war pressure.
- For sellers: If your home is well-priced, in good shape, and offers lifestyle or sustainability appeal, you may find steady interest. But expect buyers to be selective and price-conscious.
- For investors: Keep an eye on smaller communities and rental-demand trends. As remote work and shifting demographics continue, demand for affordable multi family homes or well-located rental properties could remain healthy.
As we move into the New Year, one thing remains constant: Vancouver Island continues to be an exceptional place to live, invest, and put down roots. If you’re curious how these upcoming market trends might affect your plans, reach out anytime. I’m always here to support our Island community one home at a time.
